As investor attention turns to the Federal Reserve’s next move, the crypto market has already started reacting. Analysts are now expecting a 100 basis-point rate cut in 2025, with the first signs of easing likely to emerge after July. This growing anticipation is helping fuel upward momentum in Bitcoin and other major digital assets.
Bitcoin Climbs Toward $100K, Altcoins Surge
Bitcoin (BTC) flirted with the $100,000 mark on Thursday, marking a strong recovery as optimism spreads across crypto markets. This surge was powered by two major factors: dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and a teaser from U.S. President Donald Trump about a possible trade agreement.
Dogecoin (DOGE) led gains with a 5% jump, followed closely by Cardano’s ADA, which rose 4%. Meanwhile, Ether (ETH), BNB (BNB), XRP, and Solana (SOL) posted modest increases of 2%-3%. The broader CoinDesk 20 index (CD20), tracking top liquid cryptocurrencies, climbed 2.2%, signaling a bullish trend across the board.
Trump’s Trade Deal Hint Sparks Market Optimism
Late Wednesday, President Trump posted on social media about a “big” trade deal with a “highly respected country”, slated to be revealed at a press conference. While Trump didn’t name the country, leading outlets including Bloomberg, the Financial Times, and the New York Times reported it to be the United Kingdom.
Trump added that the deal would be the first of “many” to come, raising hopes that ongoing tariff tensions might soon ease. Markets quickly interpreted this as a bullish sign, particularly for risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies, which typically benefit when global trade conditions improve.
Fed Holds Rates Steady—But What Comes Next?
The Federal Reserve’s latest decision to keep interest rates steady didn’t surprise investors, but it did leave markets speculating on when cuts might begin. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders currently see a 55% probability of a rate cut in July, bringing the target range to 4.00%-4.25%.
Market participants are also pricing in a total of 100 basis points in cuts by year-end.
“Bitcoin is inching back up to $100k with the steady Fed rate decision and the topic of future rate cuts having more consideration by traders,” said Semir Gabeljic, head of Pythagoras Investments. “Based on the current administration’s pressure on the Fed chair, anything is a possibility—uncertainty is the only certainty.”
Concerns of Stagflation Loom
While crypto prices are rallying, some analysts warn of growing risks in the broader economy. A potential period of stagflation—where inflation remains high, economic growth slows, and unemployment rises—is a looming concern.
“The Federal Reserve faces an intensifying policy dilemma that threatens both sides of its dual mandate,” said Gabe Selby, head of research at CF Benchmarks, in a message to CoinDesk.
He pointed out that with businesses increasingly passing tariff-related costs onto consumers, inflation could reaccelerate in the coming months. At the same time, key employment indicators are showing early signs of weakness.
While Selby still expects around 100bps of rate cuts this year, he warns that the Fed may risk acting too late, potentially worsening the situation. “In this volatile macro backdrop, Bitcoin has clearly emerged as a key beneficiary,” he noted, citing record inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, especially BlackRock’s IBIT, which has attracted $4.3 billion in the last month alone.
Bitcoin’s Role in a Changing Investment Landscape
Jupiter Zheng, partner at HashKey Capital, echoed this sentiment, saying that Bitcoin’s rise reflects a broader structural shift in how investors manage risk.
“Bitcoin’s rise is a testament to its hedge against macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility,” Zheng said. “Investors increasingly view crypto as a core part of resilient portfolios.”
As anticipation builds around the Fed’s next move, Bitcoin and altcoins like Dogecoin and Cardano’s ADA are positioning themselves as top performers, reinforcing their place in an evolving global financial system.
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